U.S. Power Grid
Constraint Report – Q1 2026

Where large-load development can actually occur.

What’s inside

  • QMR (Queue-to-Margin Ratio) analysis and basin rankings

  • Migration basin identification

  • Nuclear renaissance indicators

  • Transformer supply chain constraints

  • Prediction scorecard and forward signals

  • Regional deep-dive: TVA, SPP, PJM, ERCOT, Illinois

Data centers, AI compute clusters, and industrial projects no longer compete on real estate or fiber. They compete on power—and on the structural constraints that govern where power can be delivered.

This quarterly report applies Phi Group’s constraint-topology methodology to identify the regions where large-load development is structurally feasible over the next 12–24 months.

Key Findings

  1. TVA emerges as the most structurally favorable basin: firm power, predictable governance, and lower friction.

  2. SPP becomes the natural location for large AI training clusters due to renewable overbuild and curtailment.

  3. Illinois’ nuclear corridor transitions toward premium constrained status.

  4. PJM remains in governance gridlock; all 12 proposals for large-load interconnection reform failed in late 2025.

  5. ERCOT bifurcates into two markets: fortress campuses vs. exposure to volatility.